Abstract

Understanding the factors affecting COVID-19 transmission is critical in assessing and mitigating the spread of the pandemic. This study investigated the transmissibility and death distribution of COVID-19 and its association with meteorological parameters to study the propagation pattern of COVID-19 in UK regions. We used the reported case and death per capita rate (as of November 13, 2020; before mass vaccination) and long-term meteorological data (temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind speed, and visibility) in 406 UK local authority levels based on publicity available secondary data. We performed correlation and regression analysis between COVID-19 variables and meteorological parameters to find the association between COVID-19 and independent variables. Student’s T and Mann–Whitney’s tests were used to analyze data. The correlation and regression analyses revealed that temperature, dew point, wind speed, and humidity were the most important factors associated with spread and death of COVID-19 (P <0.05). COVID-19 cases negatively correlated with humidity in areas with high population density, but the inverse in low population density areas. Wind speeds in low visibility areas, which are considered polluted air, may increase the spread of disease (r=0.42, P <0.05) and decrease the spread in high visibility areas (r=−0.16, P <0.05). Among low (T <10°C) and high (T >10°C) temperature areas, the average incidence rates were 2056.86 (95 confidence interval (CI): 1909.49–2204.23) and 1446.76 (95 CI: 1296.71–1596.81). Also, COVID-19 death per capita rates were 81.55 (95 CI: 77.40–85.70) and 69.78 (95 CI: 64.39–75.16) respectively. According to the comprehensive analysis, the spread of disease will be suppressed as the weather warms and humidity and wind speed decrease. Different environmental conditions can increase or decrease spread of the disease due to affecting spread of disease vectors and by altering people’s behavior. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.